Instead of classic predictions, an approach known as “vision-led transport planning” is now coming to the fore. Its core is not the question of how many cars will drive through the city in 2040, but how the city should look and function as a whole in 15 or 20 years. Only from this vision are transport solutions derived that are intended to help achieve the set goals – whether it is the quality of public space, emissions or the availability of services. In other words, the logic of thinking is changing fundamentally. Mobility is no longer just a reaction to expected demand and is becoming an active tool that can directly shape the future shape of cities.
If individual city halls set priorities such as higher quality of life or better accessibility, the transport infrastructure must also adapt to this. And not only through new roads, but also greater support for public transport, pedestrian and bicycle mobility or shared cars, says Michal Holoubek from Vars.
From forecasts to visions
The new approach to transport planning is based on the idea that roads and capacities alone are not enough to be assessed in isolation. “The key is how the entire system works from the perspective of people and the economy. The discussion is shifting from the question of ‘how many cars can fit on the road’ to ‘how well the system serves people and the economy’,” adds Holoubek.
From this perspective, new indicators are coming to the fore, recommended by international institutions including the OECD and the World Bank. Instead of purely capacity parameters, the main thing that is monitored is the accessibility of transport, i.e. the ability to get to the destination in a reasonable time, as well as economic efficiency and environmental impacts.
At the same time, the data alone, which transport systems generate a huge amount of today, is not enough. The key is to connect them with a long-term vision of the city or region. Therefore, models and simulations are increasingly used to test various scenarios of future development instead of relying on a single forecast.
Data, scenarios and digital twins of cities and regions
Modern technologies are also bringing about a significant shift. According to Professor Miroslav Svítek, head of the National Centre for Transport 4.0 from CIIRC CTU, the so-called digital twins of cities and regions will play a crucial role, connecting transport, urbanism, energy, the environment and safety into one digital model.
“This will allow not only to monitor the current situation, but mainly to test the impacts of planned measures, changes in demand or extraordinary events. Cities will thus gain a tool that will help them better coordinate different types of transport and adapt to changing conditions. This is not about completely replacing forecasts, but about incorporating them into adaptive planning based on data, scenarios and a long-term vision,” emphasizes Svítek, adding that the character of each agglomeration and municipality is different, and their transport strategy must correspond to this.
Part of the current change is also the increasing importance of interdisciplinary cooperation and data sharing, which, according to experts, is still a relatively weak point in the Czech environment. They warn that without linking spatial planning, transport models and strategic management, it will not be possible to fully utilize the new approach.
Nothing is black and white
Experts from the Valbek design office are also convinced that a certain transformation is taking place in the field of transport planning. However, in their opinion, the suitability of individual approaches varies from case to case: “While planning based on a long-term vision is the right direction for urban and agglomeration areas, capacity forecasts still remain an important tool for long-distance transport.” At the same time, they point out that traditional models are not able to sufficiently capture people’s behavior and their ability to adapt to conditions in the transport network is lagging.
It is relatively common for some traffic participants to change their route, postpone their departure time, choose another mode of transport or cancel their trip altogether when there is insufficient capacity. In addition, traditional forecasts cannot effectively work with combined forms of travel, for example when individual car transport and rail are connected.
What will decide on investments?
The change in thinking is also reflected in how decisions about transport investments will be made. Instead of simply counting road capacity, the overall benefit to society will increasingly be assessed. As Holoubek summarizes, the aim is to assess transport according to how well it serves people and the economy, not just according to how many vehicles the infrastructure can accommodate.
This brings to the fore accessibility, economic benefits, but also environmental aspects and the system's ability to respond to changes. At the same time, Holoubek points out that "the biggest change will not be technological, but user-related" - that is, traffic management in the background may be more complex, but for people themselves the whole system will be simpler, faster and more predictable.
However, he says, it would be a mistake to adopt an approach that focuses only on "dumb" increasing the capacity of the infrastructure. The long-term solution does not lie in simply adding lanes or parking spaces, but rather in a smarter combination of various measures within one interconnected system that
will change over time according to the needs of cities and their residents.
According to experts from Valbek, there is no fixed boundary between the vision of city development and hard data on traffic intensity, each area must be assessed separately. At the same time, they remind that a similar principle is already used today in the creation of spatial plans - first the functions of the area are defined and only then the need for the development of the transport network is assessed.